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高级口译:傅莹讲中美关系能否从危险的边缘回归?

2018-11-01 16:45

来源:中美聚焦网

作者:

  中美关系下滑的速度超出人们预料。随之而来的问题是:这两个国家是否会闭着眼睛跳入所谓守成大国与新兴大国不惜发生战争的“修昔底德陷阱”?美国在推动加快这个下滑进程,但需仔细考量的是:“这是否符合美国的最佳利益?”而对于中国人来说,需要考虑的不仅是如何智慧应对挑战,而且要看这种向错误方向的下滑有没有可能被阻止。

  China-US relations have deteriorated faster than almost anyone could have expected. The question looms: Are the two countries leaping with their eyes closed into a so-called Thucydides Trap, with war possible between the rising and the established power? The US is driving this process and should reflect carefully whether it's in Americans' best interests to continue down this path. China also needs to consider how to address the challenges wisely and whether the slide in the wrong direction can be halted.

  贸易摩擦带来的紧张局势开始向其他领域蔓延。美国声称中国已成为其主要的战略竞争对手,甚至指责中国“干涉”选举并试图挑战美国的全球霸权。在国际层面,全球主义和多边主义遭到批判;同时地缘政治和大国竞争重登台面,同民粹主义、保护主义杂揉在一起,正在削弱几十年来各国之间建立的纽带。所有这些不确定因素颇有要将世界拖回到20世纪上半叶那种动荡状态之势。

  Tensions caused by trade have started to spread to other areas. The US is now claiming that China has become its main strategic competitor, even accusing it of interfering in elections and seeking to challenge American global hegemony. At the international level, globalism and multilateralism are under attack, and the resurgence of geopolitical and power competition, mixed with populism and protectionism, are weakening the bonds built among countries in recent decades. These uncertainties seem poised to drag the world back to the turbulent years of the early 20th century.

  造成这些紧张的原因是多元和多样化的。在工业和技术领域围绕新增长动能的竞争是原因之一;动摇了自由民主国家的重大政治力量的变化也带来不安。此外,美国等西方发达国家基于对不同政治制度的怀疑心态,对中国在共产党领导下取得成功疑惧日深。

  The causes for these tensions are many and various. Competition among the new drivers of growth, industry and technology is a source of unease. So, too, are the seismic political realignments in liberal democracies. It also seems that the US and other Western countries, driven by their suspicion of different political systems, have become more wary or even fearful of China's success under the leadership of the Communist Party.

  美国需要意识到,它的诸多怨诉都建立在不牢固的事实基础之上。例如,美国自认为是全球化的受害者 —— 即便数据所证明的事实与此恰恰相反。根据世界银行以现价美元估算值所做的统计:美国国内生产总值从1990年的5.98万亿美元增长到2017年的19.39万亿美元 —— 人均增加35,577美元;而同期中国人均国内生产总值增长8,509美元,不及美国增长额的四分之一。

  The US needs to realize that many of its complaints rest on shaky foundations. For instance, the US seems to believe that it's a victim of globalization — even though the numbers tell a different story. According to World Bank statistics based on current dollar estimates, US gross domestic product grew from $5.98 trillion in 1990 to $19.39 trillion in 2017, an increase of $35,577 per capita. China's GDP per capita over the same period grew $8,509, or less than a quarter of the US total.

  事实上美国是全球化的长期主要受益者,美国跨国公司获得了巨额利润;而海外低成本加工制造和低价进口商品以及全球美元环流,则无疑有助于维持美国的经济繁荣和民生的高基准。

  The reality is that the US has been the main long-term beneficiary of globalization. US multinationals have earned huge profits. And there's no doubt that Americans' prosperity and high living standards have been helped by low-cost overseas manufacturing, low-priced imports, and the global circulation of dollars.

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